Hiki ke piʻi ka mana o ka lā honua i 1,448 GW i 2024

Ua wānana ʻo SolarPower Europe i ka nui o ka mana PV hou i hoʻohui ʻia i kēia makahiki he 4% ka liʻiliʻi ma mua o ka helu o ka makahiki i hala ma muli o ka pilikia Covid-19.I ka hopena o 2019, ua ʻoi aku ka honua ma luna o 630 GW o ka lā.No 2020, ma kahi o 112 GW o ka mana PV hou i manaʻo ʻia, a i ka makahiki 2021, hiki i ka mana hou i hoʻokomo ʻia he 149.9 GW inā kākoʻo nā aupuni i nā mea hou i kā lākou hoʻolālā hoʻokele waiwai coronavirus.

Manaʻo ʻia ka mākeke PV honua e hoʻopaʻa liʻiliʻi wale i kēia makahiki ʻoiai ka maʻi maʻi Covid-19, e like me kaMākaʻikaʻi Kūʻai honua 2020-2024hōʻike i paʻi ʻia e ke kino ʻoihana ʻo SolarPower Europe.

ʻO ke ala waena, 'medium' i hōʻike ʻia ma ka hōʻike, i ʻike ʻia e ka hui ʻo ke ala e hiki mai ana, e manaʻo ana e hiki ke hoʻonui ʻia ka mana o nā hanauna hou i ka 112 GW i kēia makahiki, ma kahi o 4% ma lalo o ka 116.9 GW i hoʻohui ʻia. i ka makahiki aku nei.

ʻO ke kūlana pessimistic o ka hui e komo i ka 76.8 GW o ka lā hou i kēia makahiki, a ʻo ka wānana 'kiʻekiʻe' he 138.8 GW.

ʻO ka hopena maikaʻi ʻole i ʻike ʻia ʻaʻole hiki ke ʻike ʻia, no ka mea, ua kau ʻia ka nui o ka lā i kēia makahiki, wahi a SolarPower Europe, ʻoiai ua hoʻohui ka pūʻulu ʻoihana: "Inā ʻoi aku ka nalu o ka maʻi maʻi i nā ʻoihana nui i ka hapa lua o ka makahiki, koi ʻia ka ikaika o ka lā. hāʻule maoli nō."

Nānā makahiki ʻehā

Ke manaʻo nei ka ʻano hoʻohālikelike i ka noi o ka lā honua e hoʻi i ka ulu nui mai 2021-24, i kōkua ʻia e ka mākeke Kina."Ke manaʻo nei mākou e hiki ke koi ʻia ka lā Kina ma kahi o 39.3 GW i 2020, 49 GW i 2021, 57.5 GW i 2022 a me 64 GW i 2023 a me 71 GW i 2024," wahi a ka hōʻike.

No ka makahiki e hiki mai ana, e piʻi ka noi o ka lā i 34% a i 149.9 GW, e like me ke ala waena, a i nā makahiki ʻekolu e hiki mai ana e piʻi nā mea hou i 168.5 GW, 184 GW, a me 199.8 GW.Inā loaʻa kēlā mau helu, e piʻi aʻe ka mana PV o ka honua mai kahi o 630 GW i ka hopena o kēia makahiki i ʻoi aku ma mua o 1 TW i 2022 a me 1.2 TW ma ka hopena o 2023. I ka hopena o 2024, loaʻa ka honua i 1,448 GW o ka lā, akā naʻe, e hoʻokō wale ʻia kēlā mau milestones, ua ʻōlelo ʻo SolarPower Europe, inā hoʻokomo nā aupuni i ke kākoʻo no nā mea hou i kā lākou post-Covid economic stimulus packages.

ʻO ka paʻi o ka makahiki i hala aku nei ua wānana ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana mai o 144 GW o ka lā hou i kēia makahiki, 158 GW i ka makahiki aʻe, 169 GW i 2022 a me 180 GW i 2023, e hōʻike ana i ka maʻi maʻi Covid-19 hiki ke manaʻo ʻia e hoʻomau i ka hopena i ka mākeke lā. no na makahiki ekolu e hiki mai ana.

E emi ana ka LCOE

Ua ʻōlelo nā mea kākau o ka hōʻike, ua hāʻule hou ke kumukūʻai o ka ikehu no ka PV nui i ka makahiki i hala ma ʻekolu mau ʻāina."ʻO ka loiloi hou loa o ke kumukūʻai o ka ikehu (LCOE), i hoʻokuʻu ʻia ma Nowemapa 2019 e ka US investment bank Lazard, e hōʻike ana i ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai o ka lā ma mua o 7%," wahi a ka noiʻi."Ua ʻoi aku ka maʻalahi o ka solar scale ma mua o nā kumu hana hoʻomohala maʻamau i ka nuklea a me ka lanahu, a me nā turbines kinoea hui pū."

Ua ʻōlelo pū ka pūʻulu kālepa i ka hāʻule mau ʻana o ke kumukūʻai no nā papahana mālama solar-plus-storage hiki ke hoʻokūkū i nā mea kanu peaker gas no ke kākoʻo ʻana i nā grids mana, e pili ana i nā kūlana kūloko a me nā kūlana ʻē aʻe.

Ua haʻi ʻia ka hōʻike ʻo SolarPower Europe i nā ʻenehana solar hou ma Pokukala, Brazil a me United Arab Emirates, kahi i emi iho ai nā kumukūʻai hope ma mua o $0.02/kWh no ka manawa mua."ʻO ke kānāwai maʻamau, ʻoi aku ka haʻahaʻa o nā kumukūʻai o ka lā i nā ʻoihana me nā ʻōnaehana kulekele paʻa a me nā helu hōʻaiʻē kiʻekiʻe i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me nā ʻāina e ulu nei," wahi a ka hōʻike."Akā i nā makahiki i hala iho nei ua nui ka nui o nā hiʻohiʻona e hōʻike ana i nā PPA haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa [ʻaelike kūʻai mana] i nā ʻāina kūkulu pū kekahi."

Ka ulu ʻana

I ka makahiki i hala, ua piʻi ka nui o ka mana hou o ka lā i 13% i 116.6 GW.ʻO Kina ka mākeke nui loa, me 30.4 GW o ka mana papahana hou, a ukali ʻia e ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa (13.3 GW), India (8.8 GW), Iapana (7 GW), Vietnam (6.4 GW), Sepania (4.8 GW), Australia ( 4.4 GW), Ukraine (3.9 GW), Kelemānia (3.9 GW) a me South Korea (3.1 GW).

"Ma 2019, 16 mau ʻāina i hoʻohui ʻia ma luna o 1 GW, i ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana me 11 i 2018, a ʻeiwa i 2017, e hōʻike ana i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ka hoʻololi ʻana o ka lā i loko o nā mākeke me nā puke kaulana," i kākau ai ka mea kākau ʻo SolarPower Europe.

Ua piʻi ka nui o ka lā i hoʻokomo ʻia i ka 23%, mai 516.8 GW i ka hopena o 2018 a i 633.7 GW 12 mau mahina ma hope.No ka pōʻaiapili, ua kaena ka honua i ka 41 GW o ka lā ma ka hopena o 2010.