Ubushobozi bw'izuba ku isi bushobora kugera kuri GW 1,448 muri 2024

SolarPower Europe yahanuye ko ingufu za PV nshya ziyongereye muri uyu mwaka zizaba munsi ya 4% ugereranije n’umwaka ushize kubera ikibazo cya Covid-19.Mu mpera za 2019, isi yari hejuru ya 630 GW y'izuba.Muri 2020, biteganijwe ko GW zigera kuri 112 z'ubushobozi bushya bwa PV, kandi mu 2021, ubushobozi bushya bwashyizweho bushobora kuba 149.9 GW niba leta zishyigikiye ibivugururwa muri gahunda zabo zo kugarura ubukungu bwa coronavirus.

Biteganijwe ko isoko rya PV ku isi riteganijwe kugabanuka gato muri uyu mwaka nubwo icyorezo cya Covid-19 nk'uko bivugwa naIsoko ryisi yose 2020-2024raporo yatangajwe n’urwego rwinganda SolarPower Europe.

Hagati y’umuhanda, 'urwego' rwagaragaye muri raporo, iryo shyirahamwe ribona ko ari inzira ishobora kuzaba ejo hazaza, riteganya ko iyongerwa ry’ibisekuru bishya rizagera kuri GW 112 uyu mwaka, hafi 4% bikamanuka kuri 116.9 GW yongeyeho umwaka ushize.

Uyu muryango ibintu byinshi byihebye bisaba 76.8 GW y'izuba rishya muri uyu mwaka, naho guhanura 'hejuru' gutanga 138.8 GW.

SolarPower Europe yavuze ko umusaruro utari mwiza usanzwe usa nkaho bidashoboka, bitewe n’izuba ryashyizwe mu bikorwa muri uyu mwaka, nubwo itsinda ry’inganda ryongeyeho riti: “Niba ikindi cyorezo cy’icyorezo cyibasiye ubukungu bukomeye mu gice cya kabiri cy’umwaka, hakenerwa ingufu z’izuba gusenyuka. ”

Imyaka ine

Ikigereranyo giciriritse kandi giteganya ko izuba rikenewe ku isi risubira mu iterambere rikomeye kuva 2021-24, rifashijwe n’isoko ry’Ubushinwa.Raporo igira iti: "Turagereranya ko izuba rikenerwa n'izuba rizagera kuri 39.3 GW muri 2020, 49 GW muri 2021, 57.5 GW muri 2022 na 64 GW muri 2023 na 71 GW muri 2024".

Umwaka utaha, izuba rishobora kuzamuka 34% kugeza kuri 149.9 GW, ukurikije inzira yo hagati, kandi mu myaka itatu yakurikiyeho iyongerwa rishya ryagera kuri 168.5 GW, 184 GW, na 199.8 GW.Niba iyo mibare igerwaho, ubushobozi bwa PV ku isi bwiyongera kuva kuri 630 GW mu mpera zuyu mwaka bukagera kuri TW zirenga 1 muri 2022 na 1.2 TW mu mpera za 2023. Mu mpera za 2024, isi yaba ifite GW 1,448 izuba, ariko, izo ntambwe ziciriritse zagerwaho gusa, SolarPower Europe yavuze ko, niba leta zirimo gushyigikira ibivugururwa mu bikorwa by’ubukungu nyuma ya Covid.

Umwaka ushize wa raporo yasohotse yahanuye ko izagaruka hagati ya 144 GW y’izuba rishya muri uyu mwaka, 158 GW umwaka utaha, 169 GW muri 2022 na 180 GW mu 2023, bivuze ko icyorezo cya Covid-19 gishobora kuba giteganijwe gukomeza kugira ingaruka ku isoko ry’izuba mu myaka itatu iri imbere.

Kugabanuka LCOE

Abanditsi b'iyi raporo bavuze ko igiciro cy’ingufu zingana na PV yagabanutse cyane umwaka ushize ku migabane itatu.Ubushakashatsi bwagize buti: “Isesengura ry’ibiciro by’ingufu (LCOE) ryashyizwe ahagaragara mu Gushyingo 2019 na banki y’ishoramari yo muri Amerika Lazard, ryerekana ko igiciro cy’izuba gikoresha ingufu zazamutse ugereranije na 7%.”“Imirasire y'izuba yongeye kubahendutse kuruta amashanyarazi mashya asanzwe atanga ingufu za kirimbuzi n'amakara, hamwe na turbine ya gaze.”

Itsinda ry’ubucuruzi ryavuze kandi ko igiciro gikomeje kugabanuka ku mushinga w’izuba-wongeyeho-ububiko bushobora guhangana n’inganda zikoresha ingufu za gaze kugirango zishyigikire amashanyarazi, bitewe n’akarere ndetse n’ibindi bihe.

Raporo ya SolarPower Europe yerekanye amasoko y'izuba aherutse muri Porutugali, Burezili na Leta zunze ubumwe z'Abarabu, aho ibiciro bya nyuma byari munsi y’amadolari 0.02 / kWt ku nshuro ya mbere.Raporo yagize ati: "Amategeko rusange ni uko ibiciro by'amashanyarazi akomoka ku mirasire y'izuba biri hasi cyane mu bukungu bufite politiki ihamye kandi itanga inguzanyo nyinshi ugereranije n'ibihugu biri mu nzira y'amajyambere."Ati: “Ariko mu myaka yashize hagaragaye ingero nyinshi zerekana PPA nkeya [amasezerano yo kugura amashanyarazi] no mu bihugu biri mu nzira y'amajyambere.”

Gukura

Umwaka ushize, ingufu z'izuba nshya zazamutseho 13% zigera kuri 116.6 GW.Ubushinwa nisoko rinini, rifite 30.4 GW yubushobozi bushya bwumushinga, rikurikirwa n’Amerika (13.3 GW), Ubuhinde (8.8 GW), Ubuyapani (7 GW), Vietnam (6.4 GW), Espagne (4.8 GW), Ositaraliya ( 4.4 GW), Ukraine (3.9 GW), Ubudage (3.9 GW) na Koreya y'Epfo (3.1 GW).

Abasesenguzi ba SolarPower Europe banditse bati: "Muri 2019, ibihugu 16 byiyongereyeho 1 GW, ugereranije na 11 muri 2018, na icyenda muri 2017, byerekana uburyo itandukanyirizo ry’umuriro w'izuba ritangira kwigaragaza ku masoko afite ubunini bugaragara".

Amashanyarazi akomoka ku mirasire y'izuba yazamutseho 23%, ava kuri 516.8 GW mu mpera za 2018 agera kuri 633.7 GW nyuma y'amezi 12.Kubireba, isi yirataga 41 GW yizuba mu mpera za 2010.