Umthamo welanga lomhlaba wonke ungafinyelela ku-1,448 GW ngo-2024

I-SolarPower Europe ibikezele ukuthi umthamo womthamo omusha we-PV owengezwe kulo nyaka uzokwehla ngo-4% kunesibalo sangonyaka odlule ngenxa yenhlekelele ye-Covid-19.Ekupheleni kuka-2019, umhlaba wawungaphezulu kuka-630 GW welanga.Ngonyaka ka-2020, cishe i-112 GW yomthamo omusha we-PV kulindeleke, futhi ngo-2021, amandla asanda kufakwa angaba ngu-149.9 GW uma ohulumeni besekela okuvuselelekayo ezinhlelweni zabo zokuvuselela umnotho we-coronavirus.

Imakethe ye-PV yomhlaba wonke kulindeleke ukuthi ibambe inkontileka kancane kulo nyaka naphezu kobhubhane lwe-Covid-19, ngokusho kweI-Global Market Outlook 2020-2024umbiko oshicilelwe yinhlangano yezimboni iSolarPower Europe.

Isimo esimaphakathi nomgwaqo, 'esiphakathi' esivezwe embikweni, inhlangano esibona njengendlela engenzeka yesikhathi esizayo, icabanga ukuthi ukwengezwa kwamandla esizukulwane esisha kuzofinyelela ku-112 GW kulo nyaka, cishe u-4% wehle ngo-116.9 GW ngonyaka odlule.

Isimo senhlangano esingenathemba kakhulu sihlanganisa u-76.8 GW welanga elisha kulo nyaka, futhi isibikezelo 'esiphezulu' sibeka u-138.8 GW.

Umphumela omuhle kakhulu usuvele ubonakala ungathandeki, uma kubhekwa amanani elanga asevele asetshenziswe kulo nyaka, kusho iSolarPower Europe, yize iqembu lezimboni lengeze lathi: “Uma elinye igagasi lalolu bhubhane lithinta umnotho omkhulu kakhulu engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, isidingo selanga ziyawa ngempela.”

Umbono weminyaka emine

Isimo esimaphakathi siphinde sicabange ukuthi isidingo selanga emhlabeni wonke sibuyela ekukhuleni okukhulu kusuka ngo-2021-24, kusizwa imakethe yaseChina."Silinganisela ukuthi isidingo selanga laseChina sizofinyelela cishe ku-39.3 GW ngo-2020, 49 GW ngo-2021, 57.5 GW ngo-2022 kanye nama-GW angama-64 ngo-2023 kanye nama-GW angama-71 ngo-2024," kuphawula umbiko.

Ngonyaka ozayo, isidingo selanga sizokhuphuka ngo-34% siye ku-149.9 GW, ngokwendlela emaphakathi, futhi eminyakeni emithathu elandelayo izengezo ezintsha zizofinyelela ku-168.5 GW, 184 GW, kanye no-199.8 GW.Uma lezo zinombolo zifinyelelwa, amandla omhlaba e-PV angakhuphuka esuka cishe ku-630 GW ekupheleni kwalo nyaka aye ngaphezu kwe-1 TW ngo-2022 kanye no-1.2 TW ekupheleni kuka-2023. Ekupheleni kuka-2024, umhlaba uzoba no-1,448 GW. welanga, nokho, lezo zinyathelo ezimaphakathi zizofezwa kuphela, kusho iSolarPower Europe, uma ohulumeni befaka ukwesekwa kwezinto ezivuselelekayo kumaphakheji abo okuvuselela umnotho we-post-Covid.

Ushicilelo lwangonyaka odlule lombiko lwabikezela ukubuyiswa kwesimo esiphakathi kuka-144 GW welanga elisha kulo nyaka, 158 GW ngonyaka ozayo, 169 GW ngo-2022 kanye no-180 GW ngo-2023, okusho ukuthi ubhubhane lwe-Covid-19 lungalindeleka ukuthi luqhubeke nokuthinta imakethe yelanga. iminyaka emithathu ezayo.

Yehlisa i-LCOE

Ababhali balo mbiko bathi izindleko ezilinganiselwe zamandla e-PV enkulu zehle kakhulu ngonyaka odlule emazwenikazi amathathu."Ukuhlaziywa kwakamuva kwezindleko zamandla (LCOE), okukhishwe ngoNovemba 2019 yibhange lokutshala imali lase-US i-Lazard, kukhombisa ukuthi izindleko ze-solar zithuthuka ngo-7% kunenguqulo yangaphambilini," kusho ucwaningo."I-Utility scale scale solar iphinde yashibhile kunemithombo emisha yokuphehla amandla enuzi namalahle, kanye nezinjini zegesi ezihlanganisiwe."

Iqembu lezohwebo liphinde lathi ukwehla kwentengo okuqhubekayo kumaphrojekthi we-solar-plus-storage kungase kuphumelele ukuncintisana kwezitshalo zegesi ephezulu ukuze kusekelwe amagridi kagesi, kuye ngezimo zesifunda nezinye.

Umbiko we-SolarPower Europe ucaphune amathenda elanga akamuva e-Portugal, e-Brazil nase-United Arab Emirates, lapho amanani okugcina abe ngaphansi kuka-$0.02/kWh okokuqala ngqa."Umthetho ojwayelekile ukuthi amanani kagesi welanga aphansi kakhulu kwezomnotho ezinezinhlaka zenqubomgomo ezizinzile kanye nezilinganiso eziphezulu zezikweletu uma kuqhathaniswa namazwe asathuthuka," kuphawula lo mbiko."Kodwa eminyakeni yamuva nje kuye kwaba nenani elandayo lezibonelo ezibonisa ama-PPA aphansi ngokumangazayo [izivumelwano zokuthengwa kwamandla] nasemazweni asathuthuka."

Ukukhula

Ngonyaka odlule, inani lomthamo welanga elisha lenyuka ngo-13% laya ku-116.6 GW.I-China ibiyimakethe enkulu kunazo zonke, enama-GW angama-30.4 womthamo omusha wephrojekthi, ilandelwa yi-United States (13.3 GW), i-India (8.8 GW), iJapan (7 GW), iVietnam (6.4 GW), iSpain (4.8 GW), i-Australia ( 4.4 GW), Ukraine (3.9 GW), Germany (3.9 GW) kanye neNingizimu Korea (3.1 GW).

"Ngo-2019, amazwe ayi-16 engeze ngaphezulu kwe-1 GW, uma kuqhathaniswa nayi-11 ngo-2018, nayisishiyagalolunye ngo-2017, okukhombisa ukuthi ukuhlukahluka komkhakha welanga kuqala ukwenzeka kanjani ezimakethe ngamavolumu abonakalayo," kubhala abahlaziyi beSolarPower Europe.

Umthamo welanga ofakiwe ukhuphuke ngo-23%, usuka ku-516.8 GW ekupheleni kuka-2018 waya ku-633.7 GW ezinyangeni eziyi-12 kamuva.Ngokomongo, umhlaba waziqhenya ngo-41 GW welanga ekupheleni kuka-2010.