Kuchuluka kwa dzuwa padziko lonse lapansi kumatha kufika 1,448 GW mu 2024

SolarPower Europe yaneneratu kuchuluka kwa mphamvu zatsopano za PV zomwe zawonjezeredwa chaka chino zikhala zochepera 4% poyerekeza ndi chaka chatha chifukwa cha vuto la Covid-19.Kumapeto kwa 2019, dziko lapansi linali litakwera 630 GW ya dzuwa.M'chaka cha 2020, pafupifupi 112 GW ya mphamvu yatsopano ya PV ikuyembekezeka, ndipo mu 2021, mphamvu zomwe zangokhazikitsidwa kumene zitha kukhala 149.9 GW ngati maboma athandizira zongowonjezera pamalingaliro awo obwezeretsanso chuma cha coronavirus.

Msika wapadziko lonse wa PV akuti ukuyembekezeka kuchita mgwirizano pang'ono chaka chino ngakhale mliri wa Covid-19, malinga ndiGlobal Market Outlook 2020-2024lipoti lofalitsidwa ndi bungwe lamakampani a SolarPower Europe.

Zochitika zapakati pa msewu, 'zapakatikati' zomwe zafotokozedwa mu lipotilo, zomwe bungwe likuwona ngati njira yamtsogolo, ikuganiza kuti zowonjezera za m'badwo watsopano zidzagunda 112 GW chaka chino, pafupifupi 4% pansi pa 116.9 GW yowonjezera. chaka chatha.

Zomwe bungweli silinachite bwino kwambiri ndi 76.8 GW ya solar yatsopano chaka chino, ndipo kuneneratu 'kwapamwamba' kuli ndi 138.8 GW.

Zotsatira zabwino kwambiri zikuwoneka kuti sizingachitike, chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa dzuwa komwe kwatumizidwa kale chaka chino, idatero SolarPower Europe, ngakhale gulu lazamalonda lidawonjezeranso kuti: "Ngati mliri wina wa mliriwu ukhudza chuma chambiri mu theka lachiwiri la chaka, kufunikira kwa dzuwa kungathe. kugwa ndithu.”

Malingaliro azaka zinayi

Zochitika zapakatikati zikuwonetsanso kufunika kwa dzuwa padziko lonse lapansi kubwereranso pakukula kwakukulu kuyambira 2021-2024, mothandizidwa ndi msika waku China."Tikuyerekeza kuchuluka kwa dzuwa ku China kudzafika pafupifupi 39.3 GW mu 2020, 49 GW mu 2021, 57.5 GW mu 2022 ndi 64 GW mu 2023 ndi 71 GW mu 2024," lipotilo likutero.

Kwa chaka chamawa, kufunikira kwa dzuwa kudzakwera 34% mpaka 149.9 GW, malinga ndi njira yapakatikati, ndipo m'zaka zitatu zotsatira zowonjezera zatsopano zidzagunda 168.5 GW, 184 GW, ndi 199.8 GW.Ziwerengerozi zikakwaniritsidwa, mphamvu ya PV yapadziko lonse ikanakwera kuchoka pa 630 GW kumapeto kwa chaka chino kupita ku 1 TW mu 2022 ndi 1.2 TW pofika kumapeto kwa 2023. Kumapeto kwa 2024, dziko lapansi likanakhala ndi 1,448 GW. za solar, komabe, zochitika zapakatikatizi zikanatheka, SolarPower Europe idatero, ngati maboma aphatikiza zothandizira zongowonjezera m'maphukusi awo olimbikitsa zachuma pambuyo pa Covid.

Kusindikiza kwa chaka chatha cha lipotilo kunaneneratu kuti 144 GW ya solar yatsopano ibwerera chaka chino, 158 GW chaka chamawa, 169 GW mu 2022 ndi 180 GW mu 2023, kutanthauza kuti mliri wa Covid-19 ukuyembekezeka kupitilizabe kukhudza msika woyendera dzuwa. kwa zaka zitatu zotsatira.

Kutsika kwa LCOE

Olemba lipotilo adati mtengo wokhazikika wamagetsi pa PV yayikulu idatsika kwambiri chaka chatha m'makontinenti atatu."Kusanthula kwaposachedwa kwamitengo yamagetsi (LCOE), komwe kudatulutsidwa mu Novembala 2019 ndi banki yaku US ya Lazard, kukuwonetsa kuti mtengo wa solar ukukwera ndi 7% kuposa mtundu wakale," adatero kafukufukuyu."Utility scale solar ndi yotchipanso kuposa magwero atsopano opangira magetsi a nyukiliya ndi malasha, komanso ma turbine a gasi."

Gulu lazamalonda linanenanso kuti kutsika kwamitengo yopitilira mapulojekiti a solar-plus-storage kumatha kupikisana ndi mafakitale apamwamba kwambiri a gasi kuti athandizire ma gridi amagetsi, kutengera madera ndi zina.

Lipoti la SolarPower Europe linatchulapo ma tender a dzuwa aposachedwa ku Portugal, Brazil ndi United Arab Emirates, komwe mitengo yomaliza inali yotsika kuposa $0.02/kWh kwa nthawi yoyamba."Lamulo lambiri ndiloti mitengo yamagetsi a dzuwa ndi yotsika kwambiri m'zachuma zomwe zili ndi ndondomeko zokhazikika komanso ziwongola dzanja zambiri poyerekeza ndi mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene," lipotilo linatero."Koma m'zaka zaposachedwa pakhala zitsanzo zochulukirachulukira zomwe zikuwonetsa ma PPAs otsika kwambiri [mapangano ogula mphamvu] m'maiko omwe akutukuka kumene."

Kukula

Chaka chatha, kuchuluka kwa mphamvu zatsopano za dzuwa kunakwera 13% mpaka 116.6 GW.China inali msika waukulu kwambiri, wokhala ndi 30.4 GW wa mphamvu zatsopano za polojekiti, ndikutsatiridwa ndi United States (13.3 GW), India (8.8 GW), Japan (7 GW), Vietnam (6.4 GW), Spain (4.8 GW), Australia ( 4.4 GW), Ukraine (3.9 GW), Germany (3.9 GW) ndi South Korea (3.1 GW).

"Mu 2019, mayiko 16 adawonjezerapo 1 GW, poyerekeza ndi 11 mu 2018, ndi zisanu ndi zinayi mu 2017, kuwonetsa momwe kusiyanasiyana kwa gawo la dzuwa kumayambira misika yokhala ndi ma voliyumu odziwika," adalemba ofufuza a SolarPower Europe.

Kuwonjezeka kwa mphamvu ya dzuwa kunakwera 23%, kuchoka pa 516.8 GW kumapeto kwa 2018 kufika pa 633.7 GW patatha miyezi 12.Pankhani yake, dziko lapansi lidadzitamandira 41 GW ya dzuwa kumapeto kwa 2010.