Lub hnub ci muaj peev xwm thoob ntiaj teb tuaj yeem ncav cuag 1,448 GW hauv 2024

SolarPower Europe tau kwv yees qhov ntim ntawm PV tshiab lub peev xwm ntxiv rau xyoo no yuav yog 4% tsawg dua li xyoo tas los daim duab vim yog Covid-19 teebmeem.Thaum kawg ntawm 2019, lub ntiaj teb tau tshaj 630 GW ntawm hnub ci.Rau xyoo 2020, nyob ib ncig ntawm 112 GW ntawm PV tshiab muaj peev xwm xav tau, thiab hauv 2021, lub peev xwm tshiab tuaj yeem yog 149.9 GW yog tias tsoomfwv txhawb nqa rov ua dua tshiab hauv lawv cov phiaj xwm kev lag luam coronavirus.

Kev lag luam PV thoob ntiaj teb tau kwv yees tias yuav tsum tau cog lus me ntsis rau xyoo no txawm tias Covid-19 kis thoob qhov txhia chaw, raws liNtiaj teb no Market Outlook 2020-2024Daim ntawv tshaj tawm luam tawm los ntawm kev lag luam lub cev SolarPower Europe.

Qhov nruab nrab-ntawm-txoj kev, 'nruab nrab' scenario tau teev tseg hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom, uas lub koom haum pom tias yog txoj hauv kev zoo tshaj plaws rau yav tom ntej, kwv yees tias cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tshiab yuav nce mus txog 112 GW xyoo no, nyob ib ncig ntawm 4% ntawm 116.9 GW ntxiv. xyoo tas los.

Lub koom haum qhov kev xav tsis zoo ntau ntxiv suav nrog 76.8 GW ntawm lub hnub ci tshiab xyoo no, thiab qhov kev kwv yees 'siab' posits 138.8 GW.

Qhov txiaj ntsig zoo tshaj plaws tau tshwm sim tsis zoo li, vim tias lub hnub ci ntim tau siv rau lub xyoo no, tau hais SolarPower Europe, txawm hais tias pawg kev lag luam tau hais ntxiv tias: "Yog tias lwm nthwv dej ntawm tus kabmob kis mus rau kev lag luam loj hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, kev thov rau hnub ci tuaj yeem. tseeb lawm."

Plaub-xyoo kev pom zoo

Qhov xwm txheej nruab nrab kuj tseem xav txog lub ntiaj teb hnub ci xav tau rov qab los rau kev loj hlob tseem ceeb ntawm 2021-24, pab los ntawm Suav lag luam."Peb kwv yees Suav hnub ci xav tau yuav ncav cuag 39.3 GW hauv 2020, 49 GW hauv 2021, 57.5 GW hauv 2022 thiab 64 GW hauv 2023 thiab 71 GW hauv 2024," daim ntawv tshaj tawm sau tseg.

Rau xyoo tom ntej, hnub ci kev thov yuav nce 34% mus rau 149.9 GW, raws li txoj hauv kev nruab nrab, thiab hauv peb lub xyoos tom ntej no cov tshiab ntxiv yuav raug ntaus 168.5 GW, 184 GW, thiab 199.8 GW.Yog tias cov lej no ua tiav, lub peev xwm PV ntiaj teb yuav nce los ntawm ib ncig ntawm 630 GW thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo no mus rau ntau dua 1 TW xyoo 2022 thiab 1.2 TW thaum kawg ntawm 2023. Thaum kawg ntawm 2024, lub ntiaj teb yuav muaj 1,448 GW. ntawm hnub ci, txawm li cas los xij, cov ntsiab lus nruab nrab no tsuas yog ua tiav, SolarPower Europe tau hais tias, yog tsoomfwv suav nrog kev txhawb nqa rau kev rov ua dua tshiab hauv lawv cov phiaj xwm kev lag luam tom qab Covid.

Xyoo tas los tsab ntawv tshaj tawm tau kwv yees qhov xwm txheej nruab nrab rov qab los ntawm 144 GW ntawm lub hnub ci tshiab xyoo no, 158 GW xyoo tom ntej, 169 GW xyoo 2022 thiab 180 GW hauv 2023, txhais tau tias Covid-19 kev sib kis tuaj yeem cia siab txuas ntxiv cuam tshuam rau hnub ci kev lag luam. rau peb xyoos tom ntej no.

Txo LCOE

Cov kws sau ntawv ntawm tsab ntawv ceeb toom tau hais tias tus nqi theem ntawm lub zog rau qhov loj PV poob ntxiv xyoo tas los hauv peb lub tebchaws."Qhov kev ntsuam xyuas tus nqi hluav taws xob tshiab tshaj plaws (LCOE), tso tawm thaum Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2019 los ntawm US peev nyiaj hauv tuam txhab Lazard, qhia txog cov nqi hluav taws xob hnub ci tus nqi txhim kho dua li yav dhau los los ntawm 7%, "said txoj kev tshawb fawb."Kev siv hluav taws xob hnub ci yog dua pheej yig dua li cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tshiab los ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab cov thee, nrog rau cov roj turbines ua ke."

Cov pab pawg lag luam kuj tau hais tias txuas ntxiv tus nqi poob rau hnub ci-ntxiv rau cov phiaj xwm khaws cia tuaj yeem tawm-kev sib tw roj hluav taws xob rau kev txhawb nqa cov phiaj xwm hluav taws xob, nyob ntawm thaj tsam thiab lwm yam xwm txheej.

Lub SolarPower Europe tsab ntawv ceeb toom hais txog kev sib tw hnub ci tsis ntev los no hauv Portugal, Brazil thiab United Arab Emirates, uas tus nqi kawg tau qis dua $ 0.02 / kWh thawj zaug."Txoj cai dav dav yog tias cov nqi hluav taws xob hnub ci tau qis dua hauv kev lag luam nrog cov txheej txheem kev ruaj ntseg thiab cov qhab nia siab piv rau cov teb chaws tsim," tsab ntawv ceeb toom tau sau tseg."Tab sis nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no tau muaj ntau qhov piv txwv uas qhia tau hais tias PPAs qis heev [kev cog lus yuav fais fab] hauv cov teb chaws tsim kho thiab."

Kev loj hlob

Xyoo tas los, tus nqi ntawm lub hnub ci tshiab tau nce 13% rau 116.6 GW.Tuam Tshoj yog lub lag luam loj tshaj plaws, nrog 30.4 GW ntawm lub peev xwm tshiab, ua raws li Tebchaws Meskas (13.3 GW), Is Nrias teb (8.8 GW), Nyiv (7 GW), Nyab Laj (6.4 GW), Spain (4.8 GW), Australia ( 4.4 GW), Ukraine (3.9 GW), Lub teb chaws Yelemees (3.9 GW) thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb (3.1 GW).

"Hauv xyoo 2019, 16 lub teb chaws tau ntxiv ntau dua 1 GW, piv rau 11 hauv 2018, thiab cuaj xyoo 2017, qhia tias kev sib txawv ntawm lub hnub ci kev lag luam pib nthuav dav mus rau hauv kev lag luam nrog cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb," sau SolarPower Europe cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas.

Qhov nruab nrab hnub ci muaj peev xwm nce 23%, los ntawm 516.8 GW thaum kawg 2018 txog 633.7 GW 12 lub hlis tom qab.Rau cov ntsiab lus, lub ntiaj teb khav theeb tsuas yog 41 GW ntawm hnub ci thaum kawg ntawm 2010.