Umthamo welanga wehlabathi ungafikelela kwi-1,448 GW ngo-2024

I-SolarPower yaseYurophu iqikelele ukuba umthamo wePV entsha eyongeziweyo kulo nyaka iya kuba ngaphantsi kwe-4% kunonyaka ophelileyo ngenxa yentlekele ye-Covid-19.Ekupheleni kuka-2019, umhlaba wawuphezulu kwi-630 GW yelanga.Ngowama-2020, malunga ne-112 GW yomthamo omtsha wePV olindelekileyo, kwaye ngo-2021, umthamo osanda kufakwa unokuba yi-149.9 GW ukuba oorhulumente baxhasa ukuvuselelwa kwizicwangciso zabo zokubuyisela uqoqosho lwe-coronavirus.

Imakethi ye-PV yehlabathi kuqikelelwa ukuba kulindeleke ukuba isebenze kancinci kulo nyaka ngaphandle kobhubhani we-Covid-19, ngokutshoIGlobal Market Outlook 2020-2024ingxelo epapashwe ngumbutho woshishino iSolarPower Europe.

Umbindi wendlela, imeko 'ephakathi' echazwe kwingxelo, apho umbutho uyibona njengeyona ndlela inokwenzeka yexesha elizayo, ucinga ukuba ukongezwa kwamandla esizukulwana esitsha kuya kubetha i-112 GW kulo nyaka, malunga ne-4% phantsi kwi-116.9 GW eyongeziweyo. kunyaka ophelile.

Imeko yombutho engathandekiyo ngakumbi ibandakanya i-76.8 GW yelanga elitsha kulo nyaka, kwaye ingqikelelo 'ephezulu' ibeka i-138.8 GW.

Esona siphumo sincumisayo sele sibonakala singathandeki, xa kujongwe umthamo welanga osele ubekiwe kulo nyaka, yatsho iSolarPower Europe, nangona iqela leshishini longeze lathi: “Ukuba elinye iliza lobhubhane libethe uqoqosho olukhulu kakhulu kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, imfuno yelanga inokuba namandla. siwile ngokwenene.”

Iminyaka emine yokujonga

Imeko ephakathi ikwacinga ukuba imfuno yelanga yehlabathi ibuyela ekukhuleni okubalulekileyo ukusuka ngo-2021-24, incediswa yintengiso yaseTshayina."Siqikelela ukuba imfuno yelanga yaseTshayina iya kufikelela malunga ne-39.3 GW ngo-2020, i-49 GW ngo-2021, i-57.5 GW ngo-2022 kunye ne-64 GW ngo-2023 kunye ne-71 GW ngo-2024," iphawula ingxelo.

Ngomnyaka ozayo, imfuno yelanga iya kunyuka i-34% ukuya kwi-149.9 GW, ngokwendlela ephakathi, kwaye kwiminyaka emithathu elandelayo izongezo ezintsha ziza kubetha i-168.5 GW, 184 GW, kunye ne-199.8 GW.Ukuba loo manani aphunyeziwe, umthamo wePV wehlabathi uya kunyuka ukusuka malunga ne-630 GW ekupheleni kwalo nyaka ukuya ngaphezu kwe-1 TW ngo-2022 kunye ne-1.2 TW ekupheleni kuka-2023. Ekupheleni kuka-2024, ihlabathi liya kuba ne-1,448 GW. yelanga, nangona kunjalo, ezo ziganeko ziphakathi ziya kufezekiswa kuphela, iSolarPower Europe yatsho, ukuba oorhulumente babandakanya inkxaso yezinto ezihlaziyiweyo kwiiphakheji zabo zokuvuselela uqoqosho zasemva kwe-Covid.

Ushicilelo lonyaka ophelileyo lwengxelo luqikelele imbuyekezo yemeko ephakathi ye-144 GW yelanga elitsha kulo nyaka, i-158 GW kulo nyaka uzayo, i-169 GW ngo-2022 kunye ne-180 GW ngo-2023, oko kuthetha ukuba ubhubhane we-Covid-19 unokulindeleka ukuba uqhubeke nokuchaphazela imakethi yelanga. kwiminyaka emithathu elandelayo.

Ukwehla kwe-LCOE

Ababhali bengxelo bathi ixabiso elilinganisiweyo lamandla kwi-PV enkulu yehla ngakumbi kunyaka ophelileyo kumazwekazi amathathu."Uhlalutyo lwamva nje lwexabiso lamandla (LCOE), olukhutshwe ngoNovemba ka-2019 yibhanki yotyalo-mali yase-US iLazard, lubonisa ukuphuculwa kweendleko zelanga kwinguqulelo yangaphambili nge-7%," lutshilo uphando."Isixhobo sokulinganisa amandla elanga kwakhona sixabiso eliphantsi kunemithombo emitsha yokuvelisa amandla enyukliya namalahle, kunye nee turbines zegesi ezidityanisiweyo."

Iqela lokurhweba laphinda lathi ixabiso eliqhubekayo lokuhla kweeprojekthi ze-solar-plus-storage zinokukhuphisana nezityalo ze-gas peaker zokuxhasa iigridi zamandla, ngokuxhomekeke kwingingqi kunye nezinye iimeko.

Ingxelo yeSolarPower yaseYurophu ikhankanya iithenda zelanga zakutsha nje ePortugal, eBrazil naseUnited Arab Emirates, apho amaxabiso okugqibela ebengaphantsi kwe $0.02/kWh okokuqala."Umgaqo jikelele kukuba amaxabiso ombane welanga asezantsi kakhulu kuqoqosho olunemigaqo-nkqubo ezinzileyo kunye namazinga aphezulu etyala xa kuthelekiswa namazwe asakhasayo," itshilo ingxelo."Kodwa kwiminyaka yakutshanje kuye kwakho inani elandayo lemizekelo ebonisa iiPPAs eziphantsi ngokumangalisayo [izivumelwano zokuthengwa kwamandla] nakumazwe asakhasayo."

Ukukhula

Kunyaka ophelileyo, isixa somthamo omtsha welanga senyuka nge-13% ukuya kwi-116.6 GW.I-China yayiyeyona marike inkulu, kunye ne-30.4 GW yomthamo omtsha weprojekthi, ilandelwa yi-United States (13.3 GW), i-Indiya (8.8 GW), iJapan (7 GW), iVietnam (6.4 GW), iSpain (4.8 GW), i-Australia ( I-4.4 GW), i-Ukraine (3.9 GW), iJamani (3.9 GW) kunye ne-South Korea (3.1 GW).

"Ngo-2019, amazwe ali-16 ongeziweyo ngaphezu kwe-1 GW, xa kuthelekiswa ne-11 ngo-2018, kunye nesithoba ngo-2017, ebonisa indlela ulwahlulo lwecandelo lelanga liqala ukwenzeka kwiimarike ezinomthamo ophawulekayo," babhala abahlalutyi beSolarPower Europe.

I-Cumulative efakwe amandla elanga inyuke nge-23%, ukusuka kwi-516.8 GW ekupheleni kwe-2018 ukuya kwi-633.7 GW kwiinyanga ezili-12 kamva.Ngokomxholo, umhlaba waqhayisa nje nge-41 GW yelanga ekupheleni kuka-2010.