Imboni ye-photovoltaic ibeka i-wave entsha yokudibanisa ngokuthe nkqo

Kumxholo wohlengahlengiso olukhulu lwesakhiwo samandla asekhaya, imboni yamandla yakhawuleza yamisa umjikelo omtsha wokuguqulwa kwamandla omele amandla aluhlaza, kunye neshishini le-photovoltaic, omnye wabameli bamandla asakhulayo, naye wathatha eli thuba lokutshayela. inkungu yangaphambili kwaye ifumana umdlandla wemarike.

Uphuhliso olomeleleyo lweshishini luye lwazisa utshintsho olutsha kumhlaba okhuphisanayo wemarike yasekhaya ye-photovoltaic.Ngokomzekelo, ukuchatshazelwa yi-boom ephezulu kwishishini le-photovoltaic, umthamo wemveliso ye-photovoltaic yasekhaya iqhubekile nokuqhuma, okwabangela ukuba imarike ibe ne-oversupply kunye nokuchasana kwemfuno, okukhokelela ekunciphiseni ngokukhawuleza kwi-gross profit margin. kwishishini le-photovoltaic.Kulo mxholo, iinkampani ezikhokelayo kwishishini ziye zasungula imveliso edibeneyo ukuze zinzulu i-moat yazo, kwaye ziphuhlisa kwicala lokudibanisa ngokuthe nkqo.

Imboni ye-Photovoltaic igxotha amafu kwaye ibone ilanga

Emva kokujija kaninzi kunye nokujika, umzi-mveliso wasekhaya we-photovoltaic ekugqibeleni uqalise olunye uqhushululu ngo-2020.

Enyanisweni, ekuqaleni kwe-2011, imboni ye-photovoltaic yasekhaya yayifumana ukungalingani phakathi kokubonelela kunye nemfuno kwimarike yasekhaya ngenxa yokukhula okugqithisileyo kumthamo wemveliso, kwaye imboni yangena kwixesha lohlengahlengiso olunzima.Emva kweminyaka engaphezu kwemibini yohlengahlengiso, ukuchasana phakathi kokubonelela kunye nemfuno kwimarike ye-photovoltaic kwancitshiswa ngokuthe ngcembe kwi-2013. Idityaniswe nenkxaso yomgaqo-nkqubo wasekhaya, impembelelo embi ebangelwa yi-cyclicality yoshishino yachithwa ngokuthe ngcembe, kwaye imboni ye-photovoltaic ekugqibeleni igxotha amafu. kwaye ndilibone ilanga ngeli xesha.Imbonakalo yeshishini iya icaca ngakumbi.

Ngokwengxelo yophando eyenziwe nguGuotai Junan Securities, inani lilonke elifakiweyo lenkxaso-mali yentengiso ye-photovoltaic yasekhaya ngo-2020 ifikelele kwi-25.97GW, idlula kude kuqikelelo lwe-20GW yemarike.Njengenkokeli yoshishino, izabelo zeLongi, izabelo zeTongwei kunye nezinye ezininzi ezidweliswe iinkampani ze-photovoltaic, ngoko Ixabiso lesitokhwe liye lanyuka, kwaye ukuthandwa kwayo kwishishini kuye kwaqhubeka nokunyuka.

Kwaye emva kwemarike ye-photovoltaic yasekhaya ekhulayo, ayinakuhlukana kwizinto ezininzi.Okokuqala, ngokwemigaqo-nkqubo, ukukhutshwa okulandelelanayo kwamaxwebhu afanelekileyo afana ne "Household Photovoltaic Project Information" kunye ne "Ulwahlulo loKwakha lweLizwe lokuThutha elinamandla" kwi-2019 lenze imboni ye-photovoltaic yasekhaya igqibelele ngakumbi kwindlela yokhuphiswano kunye nenkqubo yenkxaso. , eyabeka isiseko sophuhliso olunempilo lweshishini.

Okwesibini, phantsi kophuculo oluqhubekayo lwe-teknoloji, iindleko ze-photovoltaic industry ziye zehla kakhulu, eziye zakhuthaza ngakumbi ukuphuhliswa kweshishini.Njengoko izixhobo zemveliso yasekhaya ye-photovoltaic industry yasekhaya ikhawuleza, iindleko zotyalo-mali jikelele zoshishino sele ziqale ukuhla kakhulu.Kwicandelo le-silicon wafer, ixabiso lotyalo-mali lwentonga yasekhaya yokutsala kunye ne-ingot casting segment ngo-2019 yafikelela kwi-61,000 yuan/toni kunye ne-26,000 yuan/toni ngokulandelelanayo, nto leyo ibikukwehla nge-6.15% kunye ne-7.14% xa kuthelekiswa no-2018. , Iindleko zotyalo-mali yomgca wokuvelisa ibhetri ye-PERC kwicandelo lebhetri nayo iwele kwi-300,000 yuan/MW, ukwehla konyaka-ngonyaka ngama-27%.

Ngaphantsi kwempembelelo yale miba mibini, imboni ye-photovoltaic yasekhaya iye yangenisa umjikelo omtsha wokukhula koqoqosho oluphezulu.Ngokutsho kwedatha evela kwi-Zhiyan Consulting, ixabiso lemveliso ye-photovoltaic imboni ifikelele kwi-1105.2 yebhiliyoni ye-yuan kwi-2019, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba le datha iya kufikelela kwi-20684 yebhiliyoni ye-yuan ngo-2025. Ikamva elizayo lisafanele likhangele phambili.

Imboni ye-photovoltaic ibeka i-wave entsha yokudibanisa ngokuthe nkqo

Ngelixa ishishini le-photovoltaic laseTshayina likhula, indawo ekhuphisanayo yemarike nayo iyatshintsha.Ngokomzekelo, ukususela ngo-2019, isiganeko sokudityaniswa kweenkampani ezikhokelayo kwishishini le-photovoltaic lasekhaya liye lavela.Njengoko iinkokeli zoshishino, i-JinkoSolar, i-JA Solar Technology kunye ne-Longi Co., Ltd. baye baqhuba uluhlu lwamakhonkco amathathu kwi-silicon, iibhetri, kunye neemodyuli.Ngelo xesha, i-Trina Solar, i-Touri New Energy, kunye ne-Tianlong Optoelectronics nayo idibene.

Kukho izizathu ezibini eziphambili zale nto.Kwelinye icala, ukuhla kwenkxaso-mali kunye nokwehla kotyalo-mali ngamacandelo oshishino kubeke uxinzelelo olwandayo kwiinkampani, kwaye kusengqiqweni ukuba iinkampani zisebenzisane ukwandisa inzuzo yazo.Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, kunye nokunyuka ngokuthe ngcembe kweshishini le-photovoltaic yasekhaya, inkxaso-mali yomgaqo-nkqubo wokuqala we-photovoltaic industry yaqala ukuhla ngonyaka.

Ngokwezibalo zeNational Energy Information Platform, ixabiso lombane kwigridi ye-photovoltaics kwiintlobo ezintathu zeendawo zobutyebi e-China liye lancitshiswa ngaphezu kwe-60% ukususela ngo-2012, kunye nenkxaso-mali yokusasazwa kweeprojekthi zokuvelisa amandla e-photovoltaic. iphinde yehliswe ngamaxesha e-4, enempembelelo ebalulekileyo kumda wengeniso ye-photovoltaic industry.Impembelelo enkulu.Kule meko, iinkampani ezikhokelayo ezifana nezabelo zeLongji ngokwemvelo zifuna ukunciphisa iindleko ngokuphumeza imodeli yokudibanisa ngokuthe nkqo, ukuze kwandiswe inzuzo yeendleko zabo.

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, amathemba oshishino lwe-photovoltaic ngokuthe ngcembe acaca ngakumbi, ukunciphisa umngcipheko weenguqu ze-cyclical kwishishini, elinika ithuba lokuba amashishini asebenzise imodeli yokudibanisa ngokuthe nkqo.Njengoko imfuno ephakathi kunye nexesha elide loshishino lwe-photovoltaic luhlala luzinzile, impembelelo yayo ye-cyclical kwinzuzo yoshishino nayo iyancitshiswa kakhulu, ethe yakhawulezisa ukuphuhliswa kokuhlanganiswa ngokuthe nkqo kwishishini.

Emva kokuba imodeli yokudibanisa imboni ikhuthazwa, iingenelo zeenkampani ezikhokelayo kwiimarike ze-photovoltaic ziye zacaca ngakumbi.Ngokomzekelo, ngexesha lobhubhani walo nyaka, iinkampani ezihamba phambili kwishishini lasekhaya le-photovoltaic lifumene inani elikhulu lee-odolo ngenxa yeendleko kunye nezibonelelo zesiteshi semodeli edibeneyo, ngelixa inani lee-odolo ezifunyenwe ngamashishini amancinci naphakathi. kweli shishini lehle kakhulu, kwaye ezinye iinkampani ziye zanyanzeleka ukuba ziyimise imveliso.

Kuyabonakala ukuba le modeli iphunyezwe ngamashishini akhokelayo inenzuzo enkulu ekudityanisweni ngakumbi kwesikhundla sabo esongamileyo, kwaye oku kuye komeleza ngakumbi inkqubo yodibaniso oluthe nkqo lwamashishini aphambili, okwenza ukuba imodeli yodibaniso ethe nkqo inyuke ibe ngumkhwa omtsha kuphuhliso. yoshishino.

Umngcipheko usekho

Nangona kunjalo, ngokwembono yemarike ngokubanzi, kusekho iziphene ezininzi kwimodeli yokudibanisa ngokuthe nkqo.Okokuqala, imodeli yokudibanisa iya kuzisa imingcipheko ephezulu kumashishini xa ejongene netekhnoloji yoshishino kunye notshintsho lwentengiso.

Ngokomzekelo, isizukulwana esitsha sobuchwephesha be-HJT kwicandelo lebhetri ye-photovoltaic ibonise amandla okutshintsha iteknoloji ye-PERC, oku kuthetha ukuba amashishini adibeneyo kufuneka ahlawule iindleko eziphezulu kwiinguqu zezixhobo zotyalo-mali okanye iiprojekthi ezishiyiweyo.

Ukongeza, umngcipheko wexesha elide lokuhlawula iprojekthi ikwayingxaki ebalaseleyo ekufuneka amashishini adibeneyo ajongane nawo kutshintsho lwemarike.Njengoko i-curve yeendleko zeshishini le-photovoltaic lithanda ukucaca, umjikelo wentlawulo yeeprojekthi ze-midstream nawo ufumana ixesha elide, kwaye lo mkhwa ubonakala ngokucacileyo kwimodeli edibeneyo, okwenza iinkampani eziphakathi zijongene nemingcipheko ephezulu ye-liquidity malunga nokubuyisela imali.

Okwesibini, iyantlukwano ekusebenzeni kakuhle kwemveliso yamashishini ahlukeneyo ikwangumqobo omkhulu ekudityanisweni kwamashishini.Ngokomzekelo, izabelo zeLongi kunye namanye amashishini aphumeza ukuhlanganiswa ngokuthe nkqo ane-gap enkulu kwisakhiwo, iteknoloji kunye nolawulo.Kule meko, indlela yokusebenzisa izibonelelo zamashishini ahlukeneyo ukuphucula ukusebenza kakuhle kwemveliso kwinkqubo yokudibanisa ngokuthe nkqo kufanelekile ukucingisisa.

Ukongeza, inkampani nganye ineyodwa yayo ngokwezixhobo kunye namajelo okuthengisa.Ke ngoko, impumelelo yemveliso yenkampani ngokuqinisekileyo iya kuchaphazeleka ngokusasazwa kwemigca yemveliso kwinqanaba lokuqala lomfelandawonye.Ukuba le ngxaki ayizange isombululwe ngokufanelekileyo okanye ilungelelaniswe, inzuzo ephantsi yexabiso eliphantsi lemodeli edibeneyo ayiyi kuba nzima nje ukuyiqonda, iya kubangela iingxaki zexabiso eliphezulu kunye nemveliso ephantsi.Ingabonwa ukuba imodeli yokudibanisa ngokuthe nkqo eyenziwa ngamashishini e-photovoltaic isajongene nobunzima obuninzi kwizicelo eziphathekayo.

Indlela yokwandisa amandla kunye nokuphepha ubuthathaka?

Ukuchaphazeleka kwezi ngxaki, imodeli yokudibanisa ngokuthe nkqo iye yabuzwa kwakhona kwimarike ye-photovoltaic.Ke, ngaba ukuhlanganiswa ngokuthe nkqo kunengqiqo?

Ukuphendula lo mbuzo, kusafuneka sidibanise uhlalutyo oluvela kwiinkalo ezininzi.Ngokombono weemarike, iinkampani ze-photovoltaic zisebenzisa imodeli yokudibanisa ngokuthe nkqo ukunyusa ukhuphiswano lwabo.Ngoko ke, indlela yokusebenzisa izibonelelo zemodeli yokudibanisa yingxaki yokuba iinkampani ze-photovoltaic kufuneka zicinge ngokucokisekileyo.Kwimodeli edibeneyo, ishishini linamandla okulawula iindleko ngokudibanisa imveliso kunye nokubonelela, kwaye inzuzo yalo kwiindleko inokulwela inyathelo elingakumbi kwimarike.

Umzekelo, ngokumalunga nezibonelelo zeshishini kunye nemijelo yokuthengisa, iinkampani ezinjalo zinokusebenzisa izixhobo esele zilawulekile ukufumana amandla aphezulu othethathethwano emarikeni, ngaloo ndlela zinciphisa iindleko zokuthengwa kwempahla ekrwada okanye ukwandisa amaxabiso emveliso, kunye nokunciphisa uxinzelelo loshishino. ukuhla kumyinge wengeniso yengeniso.Njengoko olu ncedo luya lubonakala ngakumbi, iinzuzo ezikhoyo zamashishini kule modeli nazo ziya kudityaniswa.

Ngengxaki yolawulo lwemveliso esebenzayo kulo mzekelo, iinkampani kufuneka zenze ucwangciso lwemveliso, zisebenzise ngokupheleleyo izixhobo zomgca wokuvelisa, kunye nokuphucula ukusebenza kakuhle kwemveliso ngelixa zilawula iindleko, ukwenzela ukuba kugxininise inzuzo yeendleko zemodeli edibeneyo.Itekhnoloji ye-HJT, esele ikwinqanaba lokuqala lophuhliso, nangona kunzima ukuthandwa ngenxa yemicimbi yeendleko, iingenelo zayo eziphezulu zobuchule kunye namandla amakhulu ophuhliso zisafuna iinkampani zemodeli ezihlanganisiweyo ukuba ziphendule kwangaphambili.

Ukuqwalasela ukuzinza kwangoku kweemarike ze-photovoltaic, iingenelo zemodeli edibeneyo zigqithise kakhulu ukungonakali kwamashishini.Kodwa ekuhambeni kwexesha, imingcipheko yokuphindaphinda itekhnoloji kwimodeli yokudibanisa ethe nkqo isazisa ukungaqiniseki ngakumbi kwishishini.

Ngoko ke, ekuhambeni kwexesha, i-chain chain chain kunye neenzuzo zeendleko eziziswa yimodeli edibeneyo ayikwazi ukunyusa ngokusisigxina ukhuphiswano oluphambili lweenkampani ze-photovoltaic kwimarike.Ukuba iinkampani ze-photovoltaic zifuna ukuphuhlisa ngokuqhubekayo kunye nempilo, nazo zifuna ukufumana iteknoloji, imarike kunye nezinye iinkalo.Kuphela kungokuphumelela apho sinokuthi sibambe inyathelo elithe kratya kwimarike.